GEO-POLITICAL ANALYSIS - THE MIDDLE EAST IS IMPLODING
By Nick Guardino
Dene and Doug's Remarks at the End
Introduction by the Tribnet:
Nick Guardino is a writer who publishes a periodic newsletter called WALL STREET INSIDERS. Nick's analysis of what is really going on in the Middle East is, for the most part, exceedingly insightful - notwithstanding, and not that we're know-it-alls, but his final prognostications are far too cheery and hopeful - we at the Tribnet do not share in his rosey prospect for a better day for the Middle East. Although the overthrow of President Morsi may seem that "Moderate Islam" has won the day...this is but a Pyrrhic victory...the prophetic prospects for both the Oracle of Damascus and that of the Burden of Egypt are hell-bent in turning the Middle East into a cauldron of Islamic discontent where there are no winners; notwithstanding, Nick's views and style are his own - we may share most of them but his conclusions are deficient - see our remarks at the end.
By Nick Guardino...
July 2013 Nick note: events in the Middle East are exploding. They could soon impact the entire world – politically, financially and market-wise.
In this issue I show you what's really going on in Syria and Egypt, and how that will impact the markets. I urge you to pay attention: it could be worth millions to you.
Syria: the regional conflict that will spark global war if we're not careful. As we speak, Iran, Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the EU and even the US are either fighting in/around Syria – or supplying arms, advisers, money and/or troops to the various factions there. Just like happened 100 years ago in a remote part of Europe, this could quickly spread to nations far beyond the Middle East. Syria is one of those conflicts that comes along every 50 or 100 years. The kind that has the potential to alter the global economic/political landscape.
The kind that could ignite a world war. War rages across Syria. The official death toll is over 100,000. Thousands more die each week, as the conflict grows in intensity, weapons and combatants. Two million Syrians have fled the border, to become international refugees. Over 20% of the people still inside Syria are homeless. The UN says at least 50% of all Syrians will need aid by year's end.
Most dangerous of all, the conflict is spilling over into other nations. This could quickly proliferate, far beyond 'merely' the Middle East. Lebanon, under radical terrorist group Hezbollah, has been dragged into the fray.
Riots over the Syrian crisis are spreading across Turkey. So has Turkey, which is destabilized, facing riots across the country.
King Abdullah of Jordan is holding on by a thread. His jet is on call at his nearby private airstrip, fueled and ready to fly off at a moment's notice.
Most alarming of all, Iran, the Saudis, Europe and even the U.S. are already officially part of the fight. They supply arms, money and/or men. Iran recently announced it is sending 4000 elite Revolutionary Guard troops to fight on the side of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
India, Thailand, Austria and Sweden have pulled all their soldiers from the U.N. mission there. Australia recently did the same.
One big reason: Assad is using chemical WMDs in Syria, against both the rebels and his own people.
Last summer President Obama set a red line in the sand. He said America would not tolerate the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Then for nearly a year, Obama was like the three monkeys who see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil. He refused to accept the scientific, biological, photographic and eyewitness proof that Assad had crossed the red line, over and over again.
Now even Obama finally admits it. He finally agrees with what every foreign intelligence agency, news service, reporter on the ground and even the Doctors Without Borders have been screaming:
Assad has repeatedly used Sarin nerve gas on his own civilians. Nazi scientists developed Sarin in 1938. It is one of the most potent chemical weapons known to man. Sarin is 500 times more deadly than cyanide. According to the World Health Organization, "just a pinprick-sized droplet will kill a human."
Shockingly, Assad controls hundreds of tonnes of Sarin and various other deadly chemical agents. That's according to Leonard Spector of the Monterey Institute of International Studies.
As I'll show you later in this report, the chances are very high that Assad will unleash those chemical WMDs.
As Obama publicly stated, the U.S. will officially supply small arms and ammunition to select groups of Syrian rebels.
But in reality the U.S. has been doing this from the beginning of the conflict. We did it indirectly: through the billions in aid we gave to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood regime.
From this point on, the Syrian rebels (some of them) will get arms directly and openly from the U.S.
There are some problems, though. For one, right now Obama has limited the weapons to AK47s, small arms munitions and hand grenades. But these arms won't do the job.
They don't pack enough fire power. Rebel groups are clamoring for a whole lot more. They want a no-fly zone (Obama says that will be difficult and expensive); U.S.anti-tank weapons (Obama says maybe the rebels will get them); and shoulder-held anti-aircraft weapons, which Obama says are a definite maybe.
Kicking and screaming, Obama will eventually give them all that and more. The idea that light support can provide a balancing act is absurd. The numbers of weapons and their sophistication will increase. Dramatically. Either from the U.S., the Saudis or both.
Why did the U.S. change its arms policy from covert/indirect to open and official?
Partly because Bill Clinton forced Obama's hand. In a private meeting (that got leaked to the public) Clinton mocked/outed Obama's strategy in Syria. The cat was out of the bag, making Obama look even more foolish to his own base, if he kept on doing nothing.
Also, you have to understand that Obama has a serious problem. He supports the most radical Islamic fundamentalists. Including those tied to America's sworn enemy, al-Qaeda.
Syria near "total implosion" – John Kerry U.S. Secretary of State
John Kerry said, "Syria is at risk of complete, total implosion."
Syria "unraveling," UN says
According to the UN's high commissioner for refugees António Guterres, "Syria as a civilization is unraveling, with as many ashalf of its citizens in need of urgent help, as a result of this savage conflict."
In fact, U.S. money and arms did not just go to Syrian rebels. Many ended up in the hands of al-Qaeda. That's because al-Qaeda works with the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, trying to overthrow Assad.
Of course, that puts Obama in direct conflict with his own military, his own intelligence agencies, his own country.
Which shouldn't surprise you. Obama repeatedly has apologized for U.S. actions. He has groveled at the feet of Arab dictators. The fact that Obama first got elected president -- and then reelected -- is a tragic statement about what has become of our once-great nation.
All presidents the world over should fear their military. Morsi of Egypt just learned that harsh lesson.
Obama is at cross purposes with his own military and intelligence agencies. As Kennedy found out, the hard way, that is not a good position to be in.
Never forget, the US military supports the Egyptian military. Over Obama's objections, it gave them the go-ahead to take out Morsi.
Tell me, Mr. Obama, can you smell the Bay of Pigs bacon burning?
Assad is history. The war is about who takes his place… Obama's worst nightmare!
Everyone knows Assad will soon be history. The battle now is about who takes over once he is gone. The Shiites, who are financed and armed by Iran? The Sunnis, especially those backed by Saudi Arabia?
Another question is, which flavor of Sunnis or Shiites wins out?
Both groups are split into factions and sub-factions. All vie for power and control.
Obama wants the most radical Shiites to take over. He proved this in his betrayal of Mubarak. He proved it in the vast support he gave the radical Muslim Brotherhood, that took over Egypt.
The Muslim Brotherhood devastated the Egyptian economy. It destroyed the nation's key industry: tourism. It threw people out of work en masse.
Egypt has the largest Islamic population in the Middle East.
The Muslim Brothers turned it into a fundamentalist, Sharia Law hellhole, with one of the highest real unemployment rates in the world.
(The official Egyptian unemployment rate is slightly over 13%. But experts agree the actual rate is four times that.)
Why did the Muslim Brothers set out to destroy their own country? Because they are fanatics. They didn't give a d…. about the Egyptian economy. They didn't care about the Egyptian people, or Egypt itself for that matter.
Their holy mission in life is to turn everyone on the planet into radical Islamic fundamentalist slaves. Women must cover themselves from head to toe, in black tents, with two slits for eyeholes. Men must not question the word of Mohammad, as the Brotherhood translates it, at risk of execution.
Under the Muslim Brothers, Egypt went back to the horrors of the Islamic Dark Ages. Widespread torture, dismemberment, and total loss of personal freedoms. All in the name of the most brutal Muslim theocracy. In other words, another Iran.
And what was the U.S. president's response to this? To keep giving billions upon billions of dollars to the Muslim Brotherhood, to spend as they pleased!
I don't know what is in Obama's DNA, that drives him to betray our military and everything America believes in. To put oppressive theocracies in power.
I do know that in many ways Obama is the Manchurian candidate. His ties with -- his roots in -- radical Islam run long and large.
Obama is an Islamic socialist, in radical black Christian clothing. For years he held the childish belief that his Islamic brothers would unite around his presidency. He was sure they would bow to his voice of moderation.
He was 100% wrong. Result: Syria has descended into war. One that is spinning out of control, dragging in countries from around the world.
Turkey has picked sides. It publicly states that Assad must be toppled. "It is time for the international community to act together against this regime," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said.
Israel has moved its best tank units to the Syrian border. Its jets have destroyed numerous shipments of chemical weapons, inside Syria, en route to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel's top special forces are, shall we say, very active.
I told you this is basically a war between the Sunnis and the Shiites. While a bit simplistic, that is true. The Shiites are the most radical of all Islam. e.g. Iran's ayatollahs are Shiite.
The Shiites are more bloodthirsty. More radical. They number around 150 million people, all fanatic zealots.
(If anyone tells you we 'only' have to worry about the Muslim radicals, do not breathe a sigh of relief. Among the Shiites alone there are at least 150 million of them, ready to commit jihad against the rest of us infidels.)
With some notable exceptions, the Sunnis are (somewhat) less radical. (One of these exceptions was Osama bin Laden. See the section at the end of this article for more on this.) They include the Saudis and most of the rest of Islam. They number around 1.4-to1.5 billion.
The Iranians, i.e. the Shiites, were emboldened by their recent successes across northern Africa and the Middle East. They believed they could realize their long-held dream: to unite all Islam under the dark cloud of Shiite oppression.
The truly dangerous part is that the war may not stay confined to Islam. Never forget, 100 years ago conflict in a remote part of Europe ignited World War I.
Similarly, the Syrian conflict has the power to pull the entire world into war.
Turkey is a NATO member in good standing. It already is demanding and receiving significant NATO assistance.
Jordan could soon buckle
Three U.S. officials warned that Jordan's pro-western monarchy, already suffering economic and political strains, may buckle under the added pressure of more than 1.3 million Syrian refugees.
The 3 officials asked not to be identified, because they were not authorized to discuss internal and international deliberations.
Iraq is being ripped apart by secular fighting. Its Shiite and Sunni populations could easily explode in more widespread violence.
This is especially true as the U.S. presence there fades.
Europe has massive, swelling Muslim populations. One European nation after another already is paying the price for this. Riots, social discord, and Sharia Law are spreading through countries from France, Spain and Belgium, to Italy and even Sweden. The discontent among Mohammad's followers is ripping across the continent. The most common name for a male child being born in the Netherlands is Mohammad.
Secular violence has torn apart Egypt. Same is true in Libya, Nigeria and Tunisia. Obama wants to pull all US troops out of Afghanistan so al-Qaeda can return.
In Turkey, the population grows more and more sick of Prime Minister Erdogan's growing theocracy. Erdogan campaigned as a moderate, much like Morsi of Egypt.
But that was a lie. Erdogan is proving himself another fundamentalist Islamic crazy. A radical wolf in sheep's clothing. It's a trick the radical Islamist have learned well.
The populations of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal are taking to the streets every other day. With GDP plunging -- with their economies in depression -- with youth unemployment at 40% to 60%+ -- they, too, are ripe for conflict.
Europe's misguided immigration policies make war even more likely. Arab Spring brought North African Muslims to Europe en masse. These people have zero interest in "assimilating." Just the opposite. They bring the revolutionary crisis of radical Islam with them. They regard it as their mission from Allah to force the rest of the world to join Islam.
I find myself growing more concerned by the day. The world is sleepwalking into World War III.
Ultimately, this war is about Iran's continuing rise to regional dominance -- and then global control and subjection of all the world to Islam. The Shiites want to see their numbers soar from 150 million... to 1.7 billion Muslims... and then to the whole world. They want Sharia Law to spread across the planet. Obama held his bizarre illusion of a peaceful, unified Muslim world.
He could not have been more wrong. The inconvenient truth is the Muslim world is in eternal conflict, careening out of control. This is driving the entire world closer to war.
Iran's nuclear program is near fruition. It's taken slightly longer than expected for one sobering reason: the Iranians are not working on merely one bomb. They are racing to build 30 functioning nuclear bombs, all at the same time.
With 30 bombs they are a formidable nuclear power. Every nation on earth must take them seriously.
And those 30 bombs are just the start. The Iranians will be able to produce 30 more bombs, minimum, every year. That's why they have built so many centrifuges. It's why they are producing so much enriched uranium.
They are building a world-class nuclear arsenal.
Iran will place these bombs on its medium and long-range missiles.
When that day arrives, the Jews in Tel Aviv aren't the only ones who need to worry. Europe and even Los Angeles will be in mortal danger.
Iran eyes 30 nuclear bombs a year: Israel minister
Iran is working round the clock to enlarge its nuclear infrastructure -- with the aim of developing an industry capable of building 30 bombs a year, an Israeli minister charged.
Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz said Tehran was "very close" to crossing the red line laid out by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last year.
"The Iranians are getting very close now to the red line... They have close to 200 kilos -- 190 kilos (418 pounds) – of 20 percent enriched uranium," Steinitz said.
"Once they have 250 kilos, this is enough to make the final rush to 90 percent," the level of enrichment required for a nuclear warhead, he said in a presentation to the Foreign Press Association.
"It is a matter of weeks or maybe two months to jump from 20 percent to 90 percent with so many centrifuges," he said.
"What they are doing now -- instead of crossing the red line, they are widening and enlarging their capacity by putting in more centrifuges, faster centrifuges."
Iran's aim, he charged, is to build a nuclear arsenal, not just a single bomb.
This is the stuff world wars are made of. But the Obama administration has done nothing to stop Iran. It has let the Iranians cakewalk their way to vast nuclear weapons.
History will record this not merely as Obama's biggest mistake....
It will be the biggest, most deadly mistake in U.S. history. Nukes aren't the only threat. I already showed you that Syria has one of the world's largest, most dangerous bio/chem WMD arsenals.
As Assad loses his grip on power, more and more of these weapons will fall into terrorist hands. Assad already is working directly with Hezbollah. He is paying them with weapons of mass destruction. Weapons are the currency of war.
WMDs change the equation for the terrorists. It puts them on a more even footing with the west. e.g. with WMDs in its hands, Hezbollah no longer fears Israel.
It's easy to transport these weapons. Nearly impossible to identify them -- until they are deployed. So don't kid yourself. The terrorists will not be content simply to launch a Sarin nerve gas attack on Israel. The subways of Paris, London and New York make incredibly tempting targets for them.
It's mind-boggling. The Obama administration scours through every American's emails. It records and monitors the phone calls, purchases and movements every American makes, around the clock.
Even al-Qaeda gets U.S. weapons
The CIA is trying its utmost to keep U.S. weapons out of the hands of al Qaeda. But Obama has changed that. U.S. made anti-tank weapons, that Obama gave to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, are going to Syria. Weapons are the currency of war, and Hezbollah and al Qaeda now have them.
Yet it ignores the mortal threat that is staring us in the face.
The threat that has vowed to destroy our way of life... that is months away from having an entire arsenal of weapons that can wreak untold violence and misery upon the entire western world.
The Obama administration could take out these threats in about 48 hours. There would be little loss of life on either side. Most of the Arab and Muslim world would privately cheer. They fear Iran and the Shiite radicals as much as the rest of us do.
But Obama's dislike of Israel borders on hatred. That has blinded him to the biggest Middle East threat of all.
The entire Syrian population is already radicalized. Within weeks, Jordan, Egypt and Turkey could officially enter the war. Iran already is sending thousands of troops. Iraq could officially join as well.
The Sunni gulf Arab states will soon be forced to take sides.
We are rapidly approaching the time when Europe, NATO and the U.S. will have to escalate their growing involvement. They already are supplying guns and money.
If 1.7 billion people (Muslims) are at war with each other, it's going to be hard for the rest of the world to ignore the conflict, never mind stay neutral. Especially since those 1.7. billion people are spread out across every country on the map.
Battle lines are being drawn. Europe is clearly anti-Shiite and anti-Muslim Brotherhood. At least European leaders are. Obama on the other hand supports the radicals. (Rhetoric aside.) As evidenced by the position he's taken in the Syrian, Libyan and Egyptian conflicts. As proven by the billions of dollars he has given the most radical Islamic movements.
That's not the position of the U.S. military or CIA. But Obama is Commander in Chief. That's the final word in this matter. It's why he sold out long-time U.S. ally Mubarak in Egypt.
As I show you in the next section, it's also why he is the one responsible for the Syrian war and its global implications.
How Obama's bizarre Egyptian policies triggered this whole mess
In many ways this is the most interesting, damning part of the entire story.
The Muslim Brotherhood had tried to foment revolution in Syria for decades. But they had almost no money. Few arms. They were an underground, radicalized movement, limited and ineffective.
All that changed when the Muslim Brotherhood rose to power in Egypt -- with the financial and political support of the Obama Administration.
First Obama stood by and did nothing, as long-time U.S. ally Mubarak was overthrown. Then Obama let the Muslim Brothers take control of Egypt.
The Obama Administration gave them billions of dollars in aid.
For example, in June 2012 Obama bypassed Congress to give $1.5 billion to the Muslim Brotherhood. This was right before the election where they seized power.
On top of which, each year Obama waived the restrictions.
Congress placed, and gave the Brotherhood $1.3 billion more.
Why give billions of dollars to a radical group of Islamic fundamentalists? Well, according to then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton the Muslim Brotherhood is, "a cornerstone of regional stability and peace."
Total b.s.. The Muslim Brothers weren't building "regional stability and peace." Just the opposite. They took much of the money Obama gave them, and funded and armed revolutions throughout Africa and the Middle East. Libya, Tunisia and Syria are three examples.
With all that U.S. money, in short order Syria's Muslim Brothers went from a dead-broke group of misfits, to a lethal entity. They have brought this war to Syria.
If Obama had not let the Muslim Brothers take power in Egypt, none of this would have happened.
If he had not given the Muslim Brothers billions upon billions of dollars, none of this would have happened.
Before the Brotherhood started the revolution in Syria, Assad had been neutralized.
He did not want to antagonize the Israelis: he knew they could bomb him back to the Stone Age. He didn't want to engage Turkey, which was backed by NATO. He certainly didn't want to take on Jordan, with its vast support from the mega-rich Saudis and the US.
The heavy toll America is paying for Obama's 1984-like surveillance
Under Obama's endearing smile and soothing speech, is a wild-eyed radical. His views are anti-free enterprise; anti-free speech; anti-personal rights. If you doubt this, just look at the insanity of the NSA spy scandal.
What better proof could you have? Our own government compiles complete files on every American. Supposedly in the name of stopping terrorists.
Yet when real terrorists were identified, with direct warnings from Russian intelligence, the Obama Administration totally ignored them. Result: Boston Marathon bombings.
The war on terrorism is an excuse.
Government uses it to enslave the people.
This often happens in advanced societies. And no, the gun hidden under your bed will do you no good.
The last four years in Syria were a stalemate. Even Iran was content with that. Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood revolution lit the fuse in Syria.
Without Obama's aid, that never could have happened.
We are well beyond the point where diplomatic solutions are possible. The hatreds -- the atrocities -- between the warring sides run too deep. They are going to have to fight to exhaustion.
I believe that Assad will not go quietly in the night. As the walls close in, I expect him to go out with a bang. He could release vast amounts of Sarin nerve gas, and bio weapons for good measure.
He's already done this on a smaller scale, against his own people. I think he used these smaller attacks as practice.
Now Assad knows the U.S. is officially involved. He knows it is already supplying lighter-bore weapons. Eventually the U.S. will supply anti-aircraft weapons, and take part in the NATO no-fly zone.
Assad knows he's a dead man walking. What does he have to lose, by using chemical weapons?
Images of Saddam Hussein are burned in Assad's memory. He saw Hussein get dragged out of his hole in the ground, tormented and hung. Assad remembers well the tortured, bullet-ridden body of Ghaddafi, after he was chased from his throne.
Assad belongs to a faction of Islam known as the "Alawites."
They are a minority that makes up about 12% of the Syrian population.
Yet until this recent uprising, they controlled the country.
They are known as fierce soldiers, who never surrender. Assad has the weapons, the background, the will, and soon the motivation to release his hundreds of tones of chemical and bio agents.
When he does that, hell will indeed be unleashed on earth.
Muslim vs Muslim: some of Islam's factions explained
In Islam it's not always as simple as Shiite vs Sunni. For example, the Muslim Brotherhood are Shiites. Like most all Shiites, they are extremely radical.
Bin Laden was a Sunni, but he became a radical. He rejected the Sunni views. He demanded Muslims the world over embrace the fundamentalist totalitarianism, as practiced by the Shiites in Iran.
Iran is overwhelmingly Shiite. Including the ayatollahs. They are a minority in Islam: the Shiites make up about 10% of all Muslims. But Iranians are not Arab Muslims. They are strongly anti-Arab.
That is one reason the Arab states fear and hate them so.
I told you that Assad is a member of the Alawites. One of the most hated of all Muslim factions. The Alawites are more closely aligned with the Shiites. In fact they are a Shiite offshoot from long ago.
There are other jihadist groups like al Nusra. The U.S. designates them as terrorist groups. Yet the Obama Administration is supplying arms to al Nusra in Syria. (Another colossal mistake US intelligence agencies repeatedly warned him about.)
The current head of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, took power after bin Laden was killed. He is an Egyptian. He used to be a leader of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood jihad. He was very close to former Egyptian president Morsi.
Now Zawahiri and al-Qaeda hate the Muslim Brotherhood. Even though they are the same brand of radical Muslims. They hate them because the Brotherhood permitted voting (even if the elections were rigged).
The Saudis are Sunnis, and supposedly more moderate. But these 'moderate' Saudi Sunnis don't let women drive cars. They behead people, cut off their hands and feet, and kill for blasphemy.
Saudi prisons are filled with people held without charge or trial. Their muffled screams can be heard on quiet nights from the filled-to-capacity torture centers.
But in the Muslim world they are still moderates compared to their Shiite cousins. Rebel groups exist in every town and village throughout the region. Many don't know each other. They all have different persuasions.
All these minorities are duking it out. The Alawites, Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds, Christians, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, al-Qaeda and now the much-feared Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Troops are pouring into Syria, who are veterans of the wars in Iraq, Afghan, Libya and Egypt. It's going to take years to sort out the mess there.
Look, wars often begin as a trickle of arms. That was true of Korea in the 1940s. South Vietnam in the 1950s/60s. Afghanistan in the 1980s. Iraq in the 1990s.
Each one led to all-out wars. How many times have we seen U.S. advisors (aka CIA agents) aid rebels, that ends up leading to a full blown regional war? Only to see them later turn on the U.S.?
Remember al-Qaeda and bin Laden were a creation of the CIA in Afghanistan to take on the Soviets.
Obama has unleashed unthinkable horrors, in Syria and throughout the Middle East. It ain't no little deal.
Even war in the Middle East can't drive precious metals prices higher
Revolution is destroying Syria. Embargoes have stopped the flow of oil from Iran. A military coup has overthrown Egypt's first-ever elected government. Yet none of that can stop the precious metals death plunge. $300 gold and $4 silver, here we come.
With the stunning events in Egypt, radical Islam is taking major blows. Blows that may totally upset the Arab/Muslim balance of power -- in ways that (for the first time ever) are GOOD for America and the world!
In 2012 the Muslim Brotherhood took over Egypt, which is the largest Arab country in the world. A country with some of the most modern, cosmopolitan Muslims on the planet. 82.5 million Egyptians. By nature a peaceful people. Religious -- nearly all Sunni -- but not radical. Western influence has been a part of everyday life in Egypt for over 100 years. Ever since Harvard archaeologists discovered the tomb of Cheops in the Great Pyramid.
The pyramids have helped shape Egyptian, European and Middle Eastern history for 5000 years. From the great pharaohs... to the Jewish exodus... to the Roman conquest... to the Suez Canal... Egypt has played a key role in the Middle East.
In the Six-Day War of 1967, Israel severely beat Egypt. After that, Egypt was the first major Muslim country to make peace with the Israelis. Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel. It acknowledged Israel's right to exist. That created something unique in the Middle East:
A prosperous Arab state, that did not rely on oil, and whose wealth trickled down from the elite to the masses in unprecedented amounts.
Egypt's military built good relations with Israel. Mubarak became president in 1981: under him the country enjoyed great relations with the U.S. Every year, Egypt received fantastic sums of U.S. money. Nothing like $100 billion in US aid over the last 20 years to cement good relations.
Egypt's military navigated the extremely murky, confusing waters of radical Islam. The nation did not have to waste its resources on wars or political insurrection. It was free to build its economy, education and infrastructure.
Tragically for Egypt (and the west), in 2011 all that came crashing down.
Obama's support of the Muslim Brotherhood destroyed Egypt's freedoms and economy
In one of the most asinine betrayals in history, the U.S. allowed a radical splinter/terrorist group -- the Muslim Brotherhood -- to overthrow Mubarak. In fact, without Obama's aid, the Muslim Brothers could not have succeeded. Obama gave the Muslim Brothers political/military support. He also gave them billions of dollars. That let them hijack the
revolution and win the election from the moderates. Muslim Brotherhood member Mohamed Morsi rose to power.
Morsi was a wolf in sheep's clothing. An Islamic radical terrorist, who misled the nation about his extremism, and used massive fraud to come to power. He represented himself as a moderate. He claimed he respected individual rights and freedoms. He said he wanted a power-sharing government with other political parties.
Total, 100% b.s. After Morsi seized power, the Muslim Brothers immediately undid Egypt's democracy. Morsi gave himself unlimited dictatorial powers (to 'protect' the nation). He abolished all authority of existing courts to oversee or even review his edicts. He even rewrote the constitution, and imposed Sharia law.
The Muslim Brotherhood had two overriding goals. One, to kill off any trace of western influence. Two, to create another radical Islamic theocratic dictatorship in Egypt, similar to Iran. Morsi's radical fundamentalism created what you'd expect.
Death. Destruction. Economic depression. Abject poverty. Oppression. Pain and suffering like something out of the Dark Ages.
In one year he transformed a modern, progressive, prosperous Arab nation into an ever-loving Islamic hellhole. All in the name of Allah and his prophet Mohammad.
"The Taliban is not our enemy" – Vice President Joe Biden
Not only did the Muslim Brotherhood destroy Egypt. Flush with billions and billions of aid, from the IMF and the U.S. -- enjoying vast, unconditional support from the Obama administration -- the Muslim Brothers incited revolution across the Middle East.
The Muslim Brothers worked with their brothers-in-arms al-Qaeda, to try to forcefully overthrow the government of Syria, and create another Sharia law Islamic hellhole. They joined forces with their ally, the Shiite crazies who run Iran, and helped overthrow governments in Tunisia and Libya. They incited people in Turkey and Jordan.
All this took place with the silence of America. That's because President Obama supported this great radicalization of the Middle East. As one example of the Obama administration's mindset, Vice President Joe Biden says, "the Taliban is not our enemy." As I told you earlier in this issue, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the Muslim Brothers, "a cornerstone of regional stability and peace."
But freedom is a funny thing. Once a population enjoys freedom, and the prosperity it brings, they don't want to go back to tyranny and poverty. For generations Egyptians had lived with more freedoms and prosperity than any other Arab country. Then they saw their economy destroyed overnight... their way of life devastated by radical fundamentalist Islam.
One of the major life-bloods of Egypt's economy is tourism. Before the election the Muslim Brothers promised they would not change that. In fact, they were going to boost tourism, and nearly double the number of annual visitors to Egypt, from 12 million to 20 million.
So what actually happened? After the elections, they appointed one of their most radical members as head of Tourism. He quickly started to impose radical Islamic restrictions on the tourist industry.
No alcohol. Egyptian beaches and pools segregated by gender. Bikinis banned. The Muslim Brothers actually considered plans to destroy the Great Pyramids! (They also took steps to dismantle Egypt's vast, world-famous art. To them it is blasphemy against Islam.) Tourism crashed, falling off up to 90%. The few who did come were enticed by incredible discounts.
Meanwhile, radical clerics appeared in every public venue in Egypt, spewing their poison of radical Islam extremist
Large numbers of women started getting raped and attacked in public. They were systematically excluded from the school system and the workforce. They were forced to wear burkas and the clothing of radical Islam. Egyptian media outlets were burned. Reporters brave enough to question the Muslim Brotherhood were harassed, attacked, imprisoned
and even killed. So were individuals who tried to stand up to the new regime.
Through all this the moderate Egyptian military saw their beloved free country and moderate republic fall into economic
depression. They watched Egypt's prosperity disappear, its cosmopolitan society get dismantled. Yet for a year, they stood still, doing nothing. Why did they not take action? Because Obama warned them NOT to.
Obama and US aid carried ultimate clout.
So Morsi was able to build his radical Islamic hellhole. An al-Qaeda style radical torture center. The Egyptian masses suffered as the Muslim Brotherhood systematically destroyed their economy and culture.
Twelve million Egyptians protested in the streets against Morsi – more than voted for him in last year's election! After a year of oppression and suffering, masses of Egyptians took to the streets in peaceful protests. Up to 12 million people,
according to some estimates.
And the Egyptian army rose to the occasion. It refused orders from the Muslim Brothers to stop the protests. Just the opposite. It demanded the Muslim Brothers join the people, to peacefully resolve the crisis.
The Egyptians love their military. (Which recruits Egypt's best and brightest.) The people did not resort to violence. Rarely in history have the oppressed masses taken to the streets so peacefully.
The Muslim Brothers repeatedly tried to incite violence. But the public did not take the bait. The Egyptian army lived up to its role as protector of democracy and freedoms for Egypt. (It still did not get the support of the Obama administration -- but it did get key secretive support from its US military counterparts.) The military asked for new elections, and simple power-sharing.
Remember why Morsi rose to power: in the chaos after Mubarak's fall, the Muslim Brothers were the only organization able to get out the vote. And they could do that for exactly one reason: Obama had given them, and them alone, billions of dollars.
In essence, Obama hand-picked the radical fundamentalists who seized power in Egypt. The Islamic fascists who turned Egypt into a living hell. No wonder Obama is one of the most hated men in Egypt. The pictures to the right are just two of many, that show the Egyptian masses well understand how Obama ruined their country.
Anytime a government loses legitimacy, and the masses rise up in mass protest, the obvious solution is to hold elections. But Morsi refused that. He refused to accept the compromise the military offered. More critically, Morsi refused the 48 hour ultimatum the army gave him, to join with other Egyptian parties in resolving the crisis.
So the military arrested Morsi, his deputies and followers. They suspended the radical Islamic 'constitution' Morsi forced on the country.
Obama is one of the most hated men in Egypt
Some in the media want you to believe Egypt is threatened with civil war. Don't get taken in: that's all show. Morsi is finished. The Muslim Brotherhood is history. The Egyptian military well knows how to handle them.
Some protestors will jump up and down for the cameras for awhile, and then go back into their rat holes. The crazies have lost. There is no turning back. The Egyptian military has spoken. A new, moderate Egypt will rise up from the radicals' ashes [Note: Here is where we differ from Nick - No, Egypt will NOT rise from the ashes - she will be plunged into chaos and civil war with a "Cruel Master" will take the helm - it will get far worse than better.]. And this will have major repercussions, both in the region and outside...
A major blow was just dealt to radical Islam – not just in Egypt but the world over
Events in Egypt should be a lesson for all of us. The Muslim Brotherhood dreamed of creating another Sharia Law/fundamentalist concentration camp. They have been stopped dead in their tracks. [Note: Nor do we concur with this wishful assumption - implacable hatred is a much greater force for evil than good.]
Dene and Doug's remarks
We, the Tribnet, felt compelled to interject our remarks at this point in Nick's geopolitical forecasting in that his "hopeful assumptions" from here on out, are, unfortunately, akin to Chamberlain's "Peace in our Time" remarks upon his return to London from Hitler's assurance that he only wanted self-determination for the Sudetenland; thereby, sacrificing Czechoslovakia upon the altar of political expediency.
Nicks' geopolitical prognostications which see the rebels in Syria gaining in strength and power as a result of Morsi's collapse and the alleged "game changer" of the moderates in Egypt - which change is hardly a given - will neither happen nor will the President of these United States of America permit his initial solidarity with the Muslim Brotherhood to be eclipsed by the so-called moderates - for whatever bizarre reasoning.
Neither Syria nor Turkey will succumb to their more moderate demons - the prophetic calendar is against such sublime and wishful thinking. Syria is a NO-WIN situation - Islamists of the Osama ben-Laden variety or Hezbollah-type Shiites, along with Bashar al-Assad - there are no winners! Hezbollah will not weaken in Lebanon - she will arise to fight another day and prevail. Yes, Syria, in all likelihood will implode, with no clear winner - not with Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq and Russia contributing to the cause - it will become a "ruinous heap." Instead of acquiescing and folding their tents, the mentality of the Iranians will be to press the pedal to the metal - this will ignite a much larger war in the Middle East.
It is absolutely absurd and altogether politically naive to think that the "moderates" in the Middle East have, as a result of the shaky overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood, gained the upper hand - the odds of a modern moderate Sunni Islamic state forming in Syria are absurd - Israel beware!
No - a thousand times NO - the balance of power in the Middle East has not in any way, shape or form shifted. The struggle between radical Shiite and radical Sunni - as it is currently being played out in Iraq - will continue in earnest until the last man standing "wins!" Radical forces in Iran, Turkey and Egypt - along with North Africa and Northern Sudan will, on that day - be they Shiite or Sunni - UNITE against Israel in the Gog-Magog War with Antichrist as Israel's protector - sad but prophetically true!
It is a total ruse to think that for the first time ever the moderates have gained the upper hand - the sweet smell of victory is NOT IN THE AIR. Sorry, it just goes to show you that bloodthirsty minorities have and will gain the control of vast majorities of peoples, just like they did in the former Soviet Union and elsewhere on this planet. Yes, the sleeping masses eventually awake - but sometimes far too late...it's called the frog in the boiling pan syndrome.
Yes, Israel is poised - now that she is totally self-sufficient in oil and gas - to be a major supplier of oil to Egypt - but, frankly, it will be too late. Oil supplies world-wide - are at an all time high because of fracking - neither the USA nor Europe gets its oil from the Middle East - thus, instead of stability here, we shall witness DESPERATION on the part of Iran, Iraq and even Saudi Arabia. Oil is about to bomb - "get out of oil" if you're an investor and get out FAST. We agree with Nick - oil could go back to $4 a barrel (later in his rant). Gold and silver are headed, as Nick says, for a total crash - GET OUT AND STAY OUT!
"Lay not up for yourselves treasures on earth where moth and rust corrupts and where thieves (on Wall Street) break in and steal - but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven where moth and rust does not corrupt and where thieves do not break through and steal - for where your treasure is, there will your heart be also!" (Jesus - and He told it like it is!).
Dene and Doug